Macro - Articles
BLACK Behind Closed Doors, the Price of Money for Your European Stocks Is Being Decided
Lagarde is leaving the ECB nine months early, and markets celebrated with a rally. Interest rates are almost a done deal. The new ECB chief will decide something else—and France is trading support for the job for a different seat.
BLACK Cheap Money in Europe Is Over. These Stocks Will Feel It Before Earnings Are Out
The ECB has raised rates only twice, and yet eurozone banks are turning off the credit tap at the fastest pace in fifteen years. Which companies in your portfolio will be hit first, who will benefit instead, and where will it show up in earnings before the market prices it in?
BLACK Four in Ten Stocks in Your ETF Are Down. So Who’s Making Money?
S&P 500 is up by tens of percentage points this year compared with the average stock in it. Bond king Gundlach talks about a hollow tree. But the data show something missing from his warning: the narrow market is only six weeks old, and the first branch has already snapped.
BLACK China’s AI bubble has burst, and the index has plunged 40%. Is the S&P 500 next?
China’s AI index lost 40% without a single piece of bad news. A shift in sentiment was enough. The U.S. market has so far avoided a similar correction, even though seven companies make up more than a third of the S&P 500 and Meta spent more than it earned for the first time since 2012. So the…
BLACK Two numbers on Thursday will matter more for your stocks than all the earnings reports
Companies are reporting their strongest earnings growth in years, yet stocks are falling. On Thursday, GDP and core PCE will show how much the market is willing to pay for those earnings. Strong growth can be bad for markets, and one inflation report will offer two truths.
BLACK Lowest Unemployment in 57 Years. That’s Not Good News for Your Portfolio
U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, and the market shrugged. Behind the record is a frozen labor market that gives the Fed a free hand to raise rates further. For growth stocks, that’s worse news than it seems.
BLACK France Is Paying Over 5% on Its Debt for the First Time Since 2002. European ETFs Are at Risk
The yield on French bonds has exceeded 5% for the first time since the euro was introduced, and Paris is borrowing at a higher rate than Rome. The market isn’t betting on a default, but on something more insidious for your portfolio. And this time, the ECB has no way to intervene.
BLACK Copper at a Record, Gold Down a Quarter. Which Side Is Your Portfolio On?
War, oil above $100 a barrel, inflation above 3.5%. This is exactly why people buy gold—and yet it’s falling. Copper, by contrast, is challenging its record. Both metals are betting on one and the same thing, and only one side can be right.
Why Are Your AI Stocks Falling Even Though Companies Aren’t Reporting Anything Bad?
Chip stocks have fallen for eight days in a row, and Wall Street is blaming the November 3 elections. But the risk the market is selling right now follows a completely different calendar than investors think.
The “safe” part of the portfolio has been losing money for 74 months. U.S. bonds are experiencing the longest slump in history
Bonds are supposed to cushion a portfolio against shocks. But U.S. Treasuries have been losing value for more than six years, the 10-year yield has jumped above 5%, and long-term funds are down by a third over five years. What had to happen for “safety” to stop working?
BLACK Why are small stocks falling 11%, while large ones are breaking records?
Russell 2000 is in correction, S&P 500 a few percent below record. Same rates, same inflation, opposite result. The difference isn't in resilience, but in who got the bill for more expensive money first - and who has it still ahead.
Are European banks falling because of France or Italy?
The best-performing sector in Europe took its biggest hit since March in just two days. The culprit is based in Paris, but the biggest bill may come from elsewhere. Anyone holding European banks or index ETFs should know what they are actually betting on.
Oil may get cheaper and it still won't help your portfolio
The market is waiting for a barrel to fall and takes it as a sign of relief. But this year's inflation isn't born in oil fields. It's born in refineries, and according to forecasts nothing changes there even in 2027. What will that do to stocks, bonds, and rates?
BLACK The strongest dollar in 18 months: which side of the trade are you on?
A European investor holding U.S. stocks earned roughly 4% this autumn without the stocks moving at all. That same move is now starting to eat into the profits of the companies they hold. How can you tell which end of the trade is winning right now?
BLACK France drags the euro to the bottom. The market now sees what it last saw in the 2011 debt crisis
The euro is at its weakest in 17 months, even though the ECB is raising rates. Such a decline doesn't give exporters an advantage, but it does send your portfolio a bill – or a bonus. It depends on what you hold and what currency you calculate in.
BLACK The riskiest stocks in your portfolio right now are the ones you thought were safe
The labor market accelerated, inflation slowed, and the Fed signaled it's in no hurry. Yet the yield on the U.S. Treasury bond shot to its highest level in 24 years. Who is actually tightening here, and why are the stocks that were supposed to protect portfolios taking the biggest hit?
BLACK Why the AI boom can crush profits at stocks that have nothing to do with AI
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is the highest since 2002 and equities barely reacted. The market has paid only the first bill. The second one is coming for companies that never even mentioned AI - and the billing starts as early as 2027.
BLACK Is this 2000 or 2022?
Valuations of American stocks have reached a level that the market has seen only twice in 156 years. Once, a crash by half followed; once, a quick correction. Which of these is approaching now won't be revealed by stocks, but by one number from a completely different market.
A strong economy now threatens one type of stocks. Do you have it in your portfolio?
In August, Americans found 162,000 new jobs and Wall Street went pale instead of celebrating. The S&P 500 still stayed near a record. The blow is aimed elsewhere: at stocks that all year profited from cheap money. Which are they and how do you know their moment has come?
FOMC Meeting Minutes: A Divided Committee, Accelerating Inflation, and the End of Predictable Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve yesterday released the minutes of a meeting that will go down in monetary policy history for several reasons. It was the first meeting chaired by new Chair Kevin Warsh, the committee unanimously voted to hold rates in the 3.50–3.75% range, and the statement dropped any hint of…
